Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Israeli election results - Update

The results of the Israeli elections today are coming in, and it seems as if the right & left will be about evenly matched in the Knesset. The national totals as of 6.08 am Israeli time are:

Likud-Beitenu - 831,212 votes - 23.24% of the vote
Yesh Atid - 507,582 votes - 14.19% of the vote
Labor - 409,468 votes - 11.45% of the vote
Shas - 315,843 votes - 8.83%
Habayit Hayehudi - 313,366 votes - 8.76%
Yahadut Hatorah - 189,666 votes - 5.30%
Tzipi Livni - 179,730 votes - 5.03%
Meretz - 164,064 votes - 4.59%
United Arab List - 135,829 votes - 3.8%
Hadash - 111,673 votes - 3.12%
Balad - 95,312 votes - 2.67%
Kadima - 74,686 votes - 2.09%

Votes still to be included in these totals are of soldiers and prisoners (prisoners in Israeli jails still have the right to vote, and there are polling stations in the jails).

A party needs to get at least 2% of the vote in order to enter the Knesset.

According to Haaretz, this translates into the following mandates for the parties (96% of votes counted):
Likud - 31
Habayit Hayehudi - 11
Shas - 11
Yahadut Hatorah - 7
Yesh Atid - 19
Labor -15
Tzipi Livni - 6
Kadima - 2
Meretz - 6
Ra'am Ta'al - 5
Hadash - 4
Balad - 3

If these figures hold, in order for Netanyahu to have even a remotely stable government, he won't be able to rely only on the rightwing parties. The right-wing total is: 60. At least 61 are needed to form a coalition. The Jewish center-left parties are: 48. The Arab parties are: 12. No Israeli government has ever been formed with the Arab parties. Netanyahu could probably get Kadima with him easily, which would give him 62 mandates, but that's also awfully precarious. His pre-election coalition was much larger. It will be interesting to watch the coalition negotiations.

This year the Israeli government website is posting the votes counted by precinct, so I thought I would look up the polling places closest to where I was living last year and see what the party breakdowns were, as of about 5:00 am Israeli time.

The polling places are in two schools, both on Yehuda St. - Pelech and Efrata, in the Baka neighborhood. The vote breakdowns do not match the national totals, especially in the much greater support for the Meretz party.

For Jerusalem polling place 460, in the Pelech school, this is the breakdown:
377 votes total
21% Meretz
20.7% Likud
16.5% Habayit Hayehudi
14.6% Labor
10.9% Yesh Atid
4% Tzipi Livni
4% Hadash
3% Am Shalem
1.8% Shas
.5% Yahadut ha-Torah

Polling place 461, also in Pelech
418 votes total
21% Likud
20% Meretz
14.2% Labor
12% Habayit Hayehudi
9.2% Yesh Atid
4.6% Tzipi Livni
4.6% Am Shalem
4.1% Shas
2.6% Hadash

Polling place 462, also in Pelech - 273 votes
24% Habayit Hayehudi
23% Meretz
13.6% Labor
13.24% Likud
8% Yesh Atid
5.5% Am Shalem
3.3% Shas
2.5% Tzipi Livni

Polling place 456, in the Efrata school
263 votes
20% Meretz
16.5% Likud
15% Labor
12% Habayit Hayehudi
10.7% Yesh Atid
6.5% Shas
3.5% Kadima
2.7% Am Shalem
2.3% Yahadut ha-Torah

Polling place 463, also in Efrata
331 votes
27% Likud
17% Habayit Hayehudi
12.7% Meretz
10.9% Labor
8.8% Yesh Atid
8.5% Shas
5.2% Otzma Leyisrael
3% Am Shalem
1.8% Tzipi Livni

Polling place 464, also in Efrata
393 votes
23% Habayit Hayehudi
27.4% Likud
15% Labor
12.3% Yesh Atid
11.5% Meretz
4.4% Am Shalem
3.5% Shas
3.3% Tzipi Livni
2.8% Otzma Leyisrael

Polling place 472, also in Efrata
426 votes
20% Likud
19% Meretz
15.6% Habayit Hayehudi
12.6% Labor
10.9% Yesh Atid
5% Tzipi Livni
4.7% Am Shalem
4.5% Shas
1.9% Kadima
1.7% Hadash

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