Nature colors: Orange, yellow, white, green, and red

More flowers, including a tulip

Flowers, and bad news - updated

On a day of bad news, some flowers.

Bad news: Kevin Drum - CDC projects half a million deaths from Covid-19.

But then the government disavowed the report from its own CDC (WaPo): Government report predicts Covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1, 2020.

In any case, the official government estimate of eventual deaths, which Trump has been talking about, is 100,000 (he recently raised this from 60,000, and we're going to reach 70,000 by later today).

And what is his estimate based on?

The forecast is at odds with remarks made Sunday evening by President Trump, who said the United States could eventually suffer as many as 100,000 deaths. At 3,000 deaths per day and rising, the national total would quickly outstrip that number if the new report is correct.

A senior White House official said the document would not change the White House planning on reopening.

White House officials have been relying on other models to make decisions on reopening, including the IHME model and a “cubic model” prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers, led by Trump adviser Kevin Hassett.

People with knowledge of the “cubic model” say it currently shows deaths dropping precipitously in May — and essentially going to zero by May 15.

The IHME projection is incorrect, and has been incorrect for quite a while. They are currently projecting a total of 72,433 deaths in the US by August 4. There will most probably be 72,433 deaths by this Wednesday. I simply do not understand why they have not redone their model to come more in contact with reality.

Their projection for deaths in New York State by August 4 is 24,314. As of today, according to Worldometer, 24,874 people have died in New York.

The "cubic model" was created by economists, not by medical experts and epidemiologists. The death rate in the US will not go to zero by next Friday.

Update - the IHME has just changed their projection.
Projection of total deaths in the US by August 4: 134,475
Explanation of changes: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates.
New projection for New York State: 32,132.

And some more flowers:

Photos from Jerusalem

Today I went to the renovated old Jerusalem train station (now called the תחנה ראשונה or "First Station"). Instead of the moldering old train station, there are now several restaurants, carts for people selling jewelry and other crafts, a farmers' market on Fridays, and places for kids to play. I had lunch with a friend at Landwer's Cafe and we walked around and looked at the stalls. Most of these photos are from today's visit and then my walk back home along the railroad trail.

The first photo, however, is from a couple of weeks ago, on the full moon. It's the view of the full moon from the garden of my apartment building.

This is one of the stands in the farmers' market.

 Graffiti on an electric box along the rail trail.

People walking and cycling down the trail.

A monastery next to the trail.

Some nice purple flowers.

Banners marking the trail just before you get to the Tahanah.

A pomegranate tree.

A nice house along the way.

Some pretty flowers.

Another interesting looking house.

More flowers.

Tiles attached to a wall made by students from the Studio for Ceramics.

Masaryk 12.

Pretty white flowers at 12 Harakevet, house of the Dayyan family.

Tile plaque on the home of the Schur family.

Numbered stones - I have no idea why.

A view down the trail towards Gilo (I think).

More graffiti - an Israeli soldier on a skateboard.

Israeli flag dangling from a balcony.

Inside a garden.

Poster on the outside of a synagogue, advertising the yearly pilgrimage to Uman, where Rabbi Nahman of Bratslav is buried.

A daisy, in the garden of the apartment complex where I'm staying.

The entrance to the garden in front of my building.

Jerusalem

So much for political doom and gloom - now for some photos of Jerusalem trees, flowers, and houses.

Pretty bush in the garden of my apartment building.

Door-knocker.

9 Amatzia St.

Pe'er Yerushalayim synagogue, also on Amatzia St.

Pretty flowers

House on Yehoshua bin Nun St., Greek Colony.

Windows on house at corner of Yehoshua bin Nun St.

5 Yehoshua bin Nun St.

9 Yehoshua bin Nun St.

Pomegranate tree in the yard of my apartment building.

Sculpture of rhinoceros in the Christian cemetery on Emek Refaim St.

Roses in the garden of my apartment building.

House number at 9 Yehoshua bin Nun St.