Thursday, November 08, 2018

Exit polls from the New York governor's race.

Just taking a look at the exit polls (all available at the CNN website).

Some results from the NY governor's race, Cuomo (D) vs. Molinaro (R)

Gender breakdown:

Cuomo won both men and women, but the percentage of women voting for him was much higher, 66% vs. 48%.

Age: Cuomo won all age categories from 18-65+. Most popular among the youngest voters.


Molinari won with white voters, 51% to 45%.
Cuomo won both Black and Latinx voters by overwhelming margins. If the state had been more white, Molinari would have been elected.

Race by gender:

Molinari won pretty overwhelmingly with white men, but lost with white women, I'm happy to say.

Whites by education and gender:

Education seems to be a key marker among white female voters. White college women voted by 2-1 for Cuomo, while white women without a college degree went for Molinari (by a smaller margin). White college men were almost evenly split between the two candidates, while white men without a college degree went overwhelmingly for Molinari. And all voters who were people of color went overwhelmingly for Cuomo. The most important factor is obviously race of the voter, but it's mediated by gender and education.

The other obvious marker was party membership.
87% of Democrats voted for Cuomo. (50% of those who answered the poll were Democrats)
89% of Republicans voted for Molinari. (24% were Republicans)
Independents (26%) were split: 44% Cuomo, 49% Molinari.

The sample size wasn't large enough to show religious differences, except between Protestants and Catholics. 48% of Protestants went for Molinaro, 47% for Cuomo. 51% of Catholics voted for Cuomo, 47% for Molinaro.

Urban, suburban, and rural

Cuomo won in the cities, and Molinaro in the suburbs. I wish the sample size had been big enough to show the breakdown among rural voters.

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